In poker, an Out refers to any card remaining in the deck that, if dealt, will improve your hand to a likely winning hand. Counting your outs is a fundamental skill used to estimate the probability of hitting a better hand on future streets (turn or river) and to help make informed decisions about calling bets or folding.
Example
You are holding A♥ K♥ (Ace-King of hearts) and the flop comes Q♥ J♥ 2♣. You have a flush draw (needing one more heart) and an open-ended straight draw (needing a Ten or a King). Let’s count your outs:
- Flush Outs: There are 13 hearts in a deck. You have 2 hearts and 2 hearts are on the board, so 4 hearts are accounted for. This leaves 13 – 4 = 9 hearts remaining in the deck that would complete your flush.
- Straight Outs: You need a Ten (T♥, T♣, T♥, T♣) to make a King-high straight (A-K-Q-J-T). There are 4 Tens. You also need a King to make an Ace-high straight (A-K-Q-J-T). Wait, you already have a King, so that’s not right. The straight draw is K-Q-J. You have A-K. The board is Q-J-2. So, you have A-K-Q-J. You need a Ten for a straight (T-J-Q-K-A). There are 4 Tens.
- Combined Outs: You have 9 flush outs. You have 4 straight outs (the four Tens). However, the T♥ (Ten of hearts) is counted in both categories. To avoid double-counting, subtract the overlapping cards. So, 9 flush outs + 4 straight outs – 1 overlapping card (T♥) = 12 total outs.
These 12 outs give you a strong chance to improve your hand.
Strategy Tip
Counting outs is crucial for calculating your “pot odds” and “implied odds.” Once you know your outs, you can convert them into a percentage probability of hitting your hand. For example, a common rule of thumb is the “rule of 2 and 4”: multiply your outs by 4 after the flop (for turn and river) and by 2 after the turn (for the river) to get a rough percentage chance. This percentage helps you decide if the pot is offering enough money for you to justify calling a bet, especially when on a draw. If your pot odds are better than your odds of hitting your hand, it’s often a profitable call in the long run.
FAQ
- Q1: Do I count “dirty outs” when calculating my total outs?
- A1: “Dirty outs” are cards that would improve your hand but might still leave you behind a stronger hand (e.g., hitting a flush when an opponent likely has a full house). While technically outs, it’s generally best practice to be cautious and discount or ignore them if you suspect they won’t lead to the best hand, especially against aggressive players or on dangerous boards. Focus on “clean outs” that are highly likely to give you the winning hand.
- Q2: How do I quickly estimate outs without complex calculations?
- A2: Practice is key! Over time, common draws become second nature (e.g., 9 outs for a flush draw, 8 outs for an open-ended straight draw). For more complex scenarios, use the “rule of 2 and 4” as described in the Strategy Tip. After the flop, multiply your outs by 4 for your chance to hit by the river. After the turn, multiply by 2 for your chance to hit on the river. This provides a quick, rough estimate.
- Q3: Why is counting outs so important for poker players?
- A3: Counting outs is the foundation for understanding poker probabilities, which is essential for making mathematically sound decisions. It helps you determine if you have the correct pot odds to call a bet with a drawing hand, preventing you from chasing draws at unfavorable prices. It also informs your aggression, allowing you to bet or raise when you have many outs, putting pressure on opponents.